Skip to main content
10 February 2025 -
Market commentary

Weekly Market Commentary: Another week and another round of tariff news threatens to upset markets

Market Commentary

Matthew Cady

Matthew Cady

Investment Strategist

Image of a rolled up financial newspaper with the word markets on the front
Time to read: 5 minutes
  • Investment
  • Central Banks
  • US Equities
  • Interest rates
  • Equities
Share this article

In summary

• Another week and another round of Trump tariff news beckons
• Last week sees markets end on a hawkish note
• Inflation data will be top-of-mind this week 
• UK growth outlook a key focus for investors again this week


 

 

Another week and another round of Trump tariff news beckons

On Friday, US President Trump said he would be holding a press conference early this week on plans to equalise tariffs on "reciprocal trade" for those countries that tax their US imports, with an added mention for automotive companies. Then on Sunday evening, Trump said he would announce 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium imports later today. In terms of which countries might be in the firing-line, it is assumed that Canada and Mexico in particular would be the most impacted given that is where the majority of US imports come from. In currency markets, the US dollar currency index (the ‘DXY’ index, which tracks the US dollar against a basket of other developed economy currencies) has moved stronger over the past few days.

Last week sees markets end on a hawkish note

Last Friday’s US non-farm payrolls jobs data for January was hawkish overall and adds to the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve will be less inclined to cut interest rates in a hurry. While at +143,000 the number of jobs added last month was less than the +170,000 expected, against this, the previous months of November and December saw decent upward revisions, with jobs added across both months coming in 100,000 higher than previously thought (with a new revised total of +568,000 jobs added across the two months combined).  On top of this, US average hourly earnings last month was up by more than expected, up +4.1% year-on-year, and above a market forecast looking for a +3.8% gain, while the US unemployment rate dropped to 4.0%, from 4.1% previously.

Inflation data will be top-of-mind this week

Tariff news flow over the past weekend has provided markets with an unwelcome back-drop as thoughts circle back again to thinking about inflation again. Following last week’s slightly-inflationary US jobs report, this week sticks with a focus on prices: already on Monday morning, we have had Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year data out from Denmark (softer at +1.5%), and Norway (higher at +2.3%); later this week, we have US CPI due Wednesday, and Switzerland CPI on Thursday. Alongside the focus on prices, investors cannot afford to forget about company news as we are still in the thick of the latest (calendar Q4) company results season – this week we expect to see no less than 75 US S&P500 and 79 pan-European STOXX600 companies coming out with numbers – but within the numbers, no doubt companies may also end up adding their views on the outlook for pricing too.

UK growth outlook a key focus for investors again this week

The UK economic growth outlook is likely to be a key focus for investors again this week. On Thursday we get UK calendar Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – as a reminder, at last week’s Bank of England (BoE) meeting which saw interest rates cut by 25 basis points to 4.5%, the BoE slashed its UK GDP growth outlook for calendar year 2025 in half, from annual GDP growth of +1.5% previously down to +0.75%. In terms of what to expect now, the BoE estimates UK Q4 GDP growth quarter-on-quarter (qoq) to be negative at -0.1% (and which would follow a zero 0.0% qoq in Q3). How the UK Q4 GDP growth number actually plays out later this week will be important for framing market’s views around likely government budget tax-and-spending choices as we head into the Chancellor’s Spring Statement due out next month.
 

More by this author

Important information

The information in this article does not constitute advice or a recommendation and investment decisions should not be made on the basis of it. This article is for the information of the recipient only and should not be reproduced, copied or made available to others. The price of investments and the income from them may go down as well as up and neither is guaranteed. Investors may not get back the capital they invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or re-disseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com).  

About the author

Matthew Cady

Matthew joined Brooks Macdonald in 2019 and has 29 years’ experience in financial markets. Matthew is a member of Brooks Macdonald’s central research desk, which provides macroeconomic research and analysis. Matthew is a member of Brooks Macdonald’s Asset Allocation Committee, and is a Chartered Fellow of the Securities Institute.

Matthew has a first class honours degree in Financial Economics from Dundee University.

Matthew Cady

Related articles

Request an initial consultation

If you have any questions or would like to get in touch, submit a call back request and our team will reach out.

Get in touch

or call us on: 020 7499 6424

or email us at: [email protected]